World Meteorological Organization forecasts indicate a near-100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027. (Photo: iStock)If you live in Gauteng or some of South Africa’s other summer-rainfall areas, you could be forgiven for asking: “What El Niño?”
The rain gauge in this correspondent’s Joburg garden recorded 51.5mm of rain in September – about twice the average for the month.
However, it looks like this could be the deluge before the drought and a reminder that El Niño typically does not unleash its impact on this region – usually in the form of drought – until summer is well under way.
“El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly. WMO [World Meteorological Organization] forecasts indicate a near-100% likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950,” the WMO said this week in its latest outlook.
“That near-certainty figure isn’t one model. It’s a consensus across thirteen national and international centres – from Washington to Tokyo to London to Pune – built on real-time exchange of ocean buoy, satellite and radiosonde data coordinated by WMO.”
Anatomy of a drought
El Niño is triggered by a warming of surface sea temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific beyond certain thresholds, and, in a flashing red light, those are off the charts.
“SSTs in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to increase to record levels during October-November-December 2026, reflecting the strengthening of the El Niño event,” said the WMO.
The meteorological jargon is “anomalies”, which refer to the divergence between current temperatures and the long-term average.
“For October-November-December, the seasonal average Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is forecast to reach approximately +3.7°C, peaking around December. This is the highest since observations began and is stronger than the previous record of +2.6°C in November 2015-January 2016,” said the WMO.
So, the SST anomaly is expected to be more than 1°C greater than the record recorded in the 2015-16 El Niño, which blazed a trail of drought and misery across southern Africa.
It must be stressed that El Niño does not always translate into drought in South Africa and the wider region. The 1997-98 event, for example, did not bring the anticipated dry spells.
We could still dodge this bullet, although the odds appear heavily stacked in favour of an impending drought. The September rains have, at least, added to already excellent soil moisture and dam levels following the rains of El Niño’s opposite phase, La Niña.
Still, alarm bells are ringing as this super El Niño continues to bulk up.
It’s coming for our food
The Famine Early Warnings Systems Network (Fews Net) warned this week that southern Africa was high on its radar screen.
“Among the regions assessed, Fews Net’s level of concern is highest in parts of East Africa and Southern Africa where El Niño is expected to contribute to widespread drought,” it said in a 2026-2027 El Niño Special Report.
“In Southern Africa, Angola, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, food assistance needs are expected to peak from November 2027 through March 2028.”
It refers to forecasts from the US Geological Survey and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that predict a late start to the wet season in these countries as well as below-average rainfall, prolonged dry spells and above-average temperatures.
Against the backdrop of steep cuts to aid from wealthy countries in the Global North – and not just the US under the Trump administration – this portends a potentially massive humanitarian crisis on South Africa’s doorstep.
South Africa is in many ways heading into this summer of El Niño with a firm footing. Aside from the promising dam and moisture levels cited above, maize stocks are abundant and food inflation is low. The latter trends speak to the sophistication of South Africa’s high-tech commercial farming sector.
Preparing for the worst
Put another way, you don’t want to face a summer of drought and heatwaves with low moisture and dam levels, poor maize stocks and high food inflation. That combination would be a recipe for disaster, with the poor bearing the brunt.
But South Africa does have constraints on dealing with an El Niño on steroids. The cash-strapped Treasury has limited means to deploy funds to any crisis. The bond market is indifferent to suffering and hardship.
And subsistence farmers in the former homelands are generally ill-equipped to deal with a dearth of rain. A further swelling of South Africa’s urban population could be a potential consequence, and our decaying metros are ill-equipped to cope with such an influx.
The bottom line is that we need to hope for the best and prepare for the worst. DM
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