There are two troubling ruptures in the earth's crust at the moment. Because of one of them, petition writers are having a field day with poor BP. Hysteria is good for whipping up angry mobs, but bad for rational policy.
Like a fat kid who farted in class, BP is getting bullied by the kind of people who bully their successful but vulnerable peers. Granted, BP did fart, loudly, and in the front row to boot. But does that really merit all the invective that is hurled at it?
After all, oil spills happen. They don't happen nearly as often as they used to, but expecting no accidents at all in any field of human endeavour is to expect the super-human. We should attempt no production, no progress, and no pleasure, if we are unwilling to risk accidents.
We continue flying, even though an occasional aircraft crashes. We continue driving, even though car accidents are relatively common. We live on fault lines and in the shadow of volcanoes, although we know a big one is due. We go shopping, even though we risk muggings or armed robberies. We go hiking and mountain climbing and cycling and rugby playing and sailing and diving, even though we know serious accidents can happen.
Without risk, there would be no reward, and no possibility of prosperity. This is true whether you're a subsistence farmer risking injury, illness, drought and pests, or a corporate banker risking default or a market collapse.
This is not to make light of the Deepwater Horizon oil well blow-out in the Gulf of Mexico. Eleven people died in the disaster, and many more were seriously injured. BP's shareholders have taken a massive knock, and the cost of a clean-up, regulatory fines and civil damages will put a serious dent in the company's coffers.
Oh, wait, you didn't expect to read about the human and economic costs of the accident? I know, the eleven dead workers don't feature prominently in the headlines. Sorry. Let's talk about the birds and the fish, then.
Already, petitions are doing the rounds to call on the US government to halt off-shore drilling and invest in "clean energy" instead.
Citizens are perfectly free to encourage private energy companies to make such investments by, say, actually buying their "clean energy" products, so one wonders why an over-indebted government should spend taxpayers' money on doing what taxpayers choose not to do themselves. But that's a topic on its own.
The global economy is suffering greatly because of the collapse of credit-fuelled bubbles built on government guarantees, easy interest rates, and inflationary monetary policy. Don't think we've seen the worst. The housing crash will likely be followed by a commercial debt crash, and that in turn will be trumped by a global sovereign debt crisis the likes of which we've never seen. Again, the solution – returning to the gold standard and abolishing central banking – is best left for another day.
However, in the teeth of such an economic gale, it is pure lunacy to reject cost-effective and relatively safe forms of energy in favour of expensive alternatives. Doing so will not make the poor any richer.
So, for the purposes of this column, let us accept that fossil fuels are an economic necessity, and will remain so until they become too expensive compared to alternative sources of energy.
Almost everyone I speak to appears to be taking for granted that drilling holes in the ocean floor to extract those necessary fuels is dangerous, irresponsible or undesirable. This notion is, quite frankly, wrong.
For a start, if Americans do not drill off-shore, someone else will. Those people are more likely to be contemptuous of the high-minded niceties demanded by comfortable elites who luxuriate in expensive idealism. Whether in terms of occupational health and safety or in environmental standards, they may not live up to the standards set by the Western oil majors.
That oil drilling is much safer than it used to be should also not be in dispute.
Since the infamous Santa Barbara well blow-out of 1969, which fouled the rich folks' beaches and turned public opinion against offshore oil rigs, the US has drilled over 50 000 wells. Only 13 significant spills have occurred. Of those, only two could be called major, and both of them happened 40 years ago. None caused the kind of damage that the 1969 spill caused. While each spill is a problem, this record does not spell apocalypse.
Compared to drilling accidents, tanker losses account for several times more oil spilt in the oceans. As with production spills, the quantities spilt in the last decade or two are small and declining sharply. The best year of the 1970s was more than twice as bad as the worst year of the last decade. The trend in oil tanker spills is a ringing declaration of the success of prevention efforts and safety standards, contrary to the impression one might get from the dramatic media imagery that goes along with any accident.
Far more oil even than tankers spill ends up in the ocean as a result of routine maintenance. That, in turn, is dwarfed by the amount that reaches the ocean in sewerage and industrial run-off. The latter accounts for more than 20 times the spillage caused by drilling and production.
The Deepwater Horizon spill has a way to go to reach the scale of the biggest disasters. It might get there, in absolute terms, but its location fairly far offshore and the extensive coastal protection measures that have been installed means that a slick is less likely to wash ashore, and is more likely to undergo the dispersal and natural weathering that breaks down all oil in the ocean.
You see, the ocean is no stranger to oil. Natural processes have been breaking down oil long before our own negligence tested this capability. In fact, almost half of all the oil that enters the oceans is not our fault, but is accounted for by natural oil seeps.
One such seep, ironically just off the coast of Santa Barbara, has spewed many times the cargo of the Exxon Valdez into the ocean, where it rises, degrades by a variety of natural processes, and sinks back to the sediment. Such seeps exist all over the ocean floor. Entire mountains of crude oil residue deep underwater recently amazed scientists, who called them "asphalt volcanoes".
Research shows that while disasters such as a major oil spill can cause serious damage in the short term, the recovery of disaster areas is usually swift, and the long-term consequences relatively modest. In fact, it is arguable that we tend to over-react to oil spills, as a report to Congress averred in the wake of the Exxon Valdez spill. Constance Holden, a respected writer for Science magazine from 1970 until she was tragically killed in a bicycle accident last month, wrote an article in 1990 in which she quoted several scientists to this effect. The article was entitled, "Spilled oil looks worse on TV". The scientists she quoted were afraid to be named.
Meanwhile, other natural disasters are creating at least as much havoc. The other rupture in the crust of the earth, the Icelandic mountain better known as "that damned volcano", did a lot more than ground airlines for fear of the all-engine stalls that hit BA Flight 9 near Jakarta, Indonesia in 1982 and KLM Flight 867 near Anchorage, Alaska in 1989.
It threatens to have a significant environmental impact. Like Mount Pinatubo in 1991 – which even had a noticeable effect on the climate – it could cause acid rain and damage the ozone layer.
Lucky that the boreal forests of the northern hemisphere were killed by acid rain in the 1980s to give Wendy Oldfield song material, and the ozone layer was destroyed to benefit the makers of factor 30+ suntan lotion.
Earthquakes, hurricanes, volcanoes, tsunamis, wildfires and floods all cause widespread human and environmental devastation. In Bangladesh, dear mother earth even put arsenic in the drinking water.
The reality is that the environment is often subjected to major upheavals, many of which are not of human origin. No matter the cause, nature recovers what it can recover, and adapts to what it cannot change, as do the people who suffer the consequences of the disasters.
In its proper perspective, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill is bad, but not as apocalyptic as the shrill environmentalists would have you believe.
BP is well aware of how bad it is. It promptly accepted responsibility for the disaster and its consequences. It has hundreds of vessels and tens of thousands of people on the case. No amount of public relations work can help its efforts to contain the spill and undo the damage, but no amount of hysterical anger will make things better either.
Is it guiltless? Not by a long shot. Evidence is already mounting that human negligence had a lot to do with the accident, and the accountability for such errors goes right to the top of BP's management.
However, when humans err, as humans do, the proper response is not to put a stop to human activity. The proper response is to eliminate the errors.
Is the US government blameless? I'd wager it is equally guilty. Besides for the allegations of political corruption that will surface in the aftermath of this disaster, there is a curious "liability cap" in US law which may protect BP, but for which there is little basis in the principles of property law. A company that causes damage to someone else's property should pay equivalent compensation, and BP is no exception.
But let us not go overboard. While it is proper for reporters and commentators to expose mistakes and wrongdoing whenever they happen, presuming evil intent on the part of BP because it is an easy target for popular prejudice is neither useful nor true. That throws the baby out with the bathwater.
Going further, by demanding that oil drilling be halted altogether in the hope of preserving a pristine environment, is worse. It's like keeping the bathwater and throwing out only the baby. Such a step will reduce living standards, impoverish the poor, and ultimately, cost lives.
Deepwater Horizon is the sort of accident that nobody likes to see, but to which resourceful people respond with alacrity, with a desire to minimise the damage, and with a resolve to prevent similar disasters in future.
The record shows that the oil majors are for the most part succeeding in reducing both the number and scale of accidents, be they tanker spillages or oil well blow-outs. They are also getting better at remediation, as the ecological condition of previous spill sites testifies.
No doubt lessons will be learnt from this accident. If you're that cynical, accept that it's only to save oil worker lives in future, or even just to spare oil companies the costs of lost equipment, clean-up costs, criminal penalties and civil suits. There's plenty self-interest right there in doing what customers, regulators and the public at large demand.
For my part, I sympathised with BP's CEO, Tony Hayward, when he said: "What did we do to deserve this?"
Neither BP, nor the eleven workers who died, deserved this.
PS. Last week's column elicited a prompt response from Tammy Evans in the office of Alan Winde, the Western Cape's Minister of Finance, Economic Development and Tourism. Within the limits of the law, she promised that there would be no delay in issuing a new liquor licence in time for the World Cup. She also solicited suggestions on how the Provincial Legislature might consider changing the the law to help other companies in the same situation. The business owner in question was visibly moved at the intervention. This is how government is meant to work: for the people.













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“The global economy is suffering greatly because of the collapse of credit-fuelled bubbles built on government guarantees, easy interest rates, and inflationary monetary policy.”
“the solution – returning to the gold standard and abolishing central banking”
“it is pure lunacy to reject cost-effective and relatively safe forms of energy in favour of expensive alternatives. Doing so will not make the poor any richer”
“let us accept that fossil fuels are an economic necessity, and will remain so until they become too expensive compared to alternative sources of energy.”
“Research shows that while disasters such as a major oil spill can cause serious damage in the short term, the recovery of disaster areas is usually swift, and the long-term consequences relatively modest.”
“Lucky that the boreal forests of the northern hemisphere were killed by acid rain in the 1980s to give Wendy Oldfield song material, and the ozone layer was destroyed to benefit the makers of factor 30+ suntan lotion.”
“No matter the cause, nature recovers what it can recover, and adapts to what it cannot change, as do the people who suffer the consequences of the disasters.”
“In its proper perspective, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill is bad, but not as apocalyptic as the shrill environmentalists would have you believe.”
“BP is well aware of how bad it is. It promptly accepted responsibility for the disaster and its consequences.”
“Going further, by demanding that oil drilling be halted altogether in the hope of preserving a pristine environment, is worse.--- Such a step will reduce living standards, impoverish the poor, and ultimately, cost lives.”
They made over 135% profit last year (and we're talking billions and billions of dollars here) but lobbied against being legislated to have to put in a $500,000 dead-man switch that could have lessened, if not stopped this disaster.
They've tried to bribe fishermen involved in the clean-up. They are 'refusing' to allow independent scientists to verify the amount of oil leaking and can't verify how much is leaking, but say it doesn't matter and try to blame their service providers. And they say the spill is not their fault because it's an 'unlikely' event - read 'Black Swan', you morons!
And they try & convince us their rebranding 'beyond petroleum' is serious while they are only investing a few % of earnings in renewables.
And, oh dear, the CEO is a bit worried he may lose his job, shame!
I no longer stop for petrol at BP and will never drink another Wild Bean coffee - I know my few 100 rands a month will make no difference to them, but it's making a difference to my frustrated outrage!
Sarah - good for you, your response is totally rational. Shell, Caltex, Total etc are all as pure as the driven snow and continuing to support them will really show BP - NOT. More likely some BP owner opeartor who has no clue about, nor is responsible for anything happening in the Gulf of Mexico, will suffer marginally and perhaps his employees who sure as apples aren't guilty of anything will suffer in turn.
Did either of you actually read the article - here is a quick summary - bad stuff happens, yes BP is at fault, but the correct response is not to halt all oil related drilling, and here are a few reasons why ....
Poor BP, everyone is being unfairly nasty to it. No one cares about the poor oil workers who died, the greenies are just concerned about fishies and birdies. The evil governments of the world have ruined the global economy so we must keep on using oil. Everyone depends oil based products and buys a lot of them so that means they love oil. There is little renewable energy on the market so that means it is crap and people don’t want it. Oil is great. BP is the nicest oil company there is so if they don’t spill the oil, someone else will. Drilling for oil is safer than transporting oil so we must never stop drilling. The spill isn’t so bad anyway. The ocean is already full of oil and the fish love it and if they don’t they will find a way to cope with it. The spill isn’t really so bad. Even if it was so bad these things just fix themselves really quickly. BP doesn’t know what the fuss is about.
Up in Alaska the oil is seeping out of the ground, but nobody is rushing to clean that stuff up because it's in a "wildlife preserve". I guess oil spills are fine when it's nature orchestrating them.
BP will lose a ton of money on this one, directly and indirectly. They've already shredded $20 billion in market value which isn't good for them or the institutions who own their stock, such as retirement funds and the like. Of course, market forces would be enough to prevent acts of negligence like this spill if the government got out of the way.
I'd go so far as to say off-shore drilling should be banned under the present circumstances. It's mandated to occur too far from shore, government collusion limits liability and there's water socialism which just ends up hurting everybody.
@sarah
Your shrill and hysterical reaction is typical of what is so deeply wrong with discourse in our modern world. There are so many things that the politically correct intelligentsia insist you SIMPLY CANNOT SAY, like questioning global warming, or the cause of AIDS, or women and child abuse. This quote from Ivo's article makes the point: "The article was entitled, "Spilled oil looks worse on TV". The scientists she quoted were afraid to be named."
You're going to drive right past that evil BP station to the next one 100m down the road. Whoopy-twang for you! Stop driving altogether, use none of that demon oil at all, and you might earn some respect. Until then, you're a joke.
But it seems like BP was particularly negligent in this case, cutting corners and removing safety features. We need to make an example of them. If you are going to do something as potentially hazardous as this, there is no place for cutting corners - even if it drives fuel prices through the roof. Make an example of BP, and other oil companies might be a little more careful in future.
(http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/05/despite-knowing-it-had-damaged-blowout.html)
Also, it ignores the larger problem of the world economy being addicted to an unsustainable commodity. As we reach peak oil, we are going to see more environmental catastrophes as marginal fields are exploited - unless we can begin the transition to a post-carbon economy.
Yes, all human endeavour carries risk, but I don't recall the people of the world being asked if they were prepared to risk the destruction of the planet for corporate profit.
says Ivo.
Gulf oil spill leak now pegged at 95,000 barrels a day
Read more: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/05/19/94467/engineer-oil-spill-videos-show.html#ixzz0oTk3adnx
Even if that guy is only half right we're looking at an environmental apocalypse for the US Gulf states. Hard to tell of course because BP refuses to even attempt to measure the output from the well. Who's paying you to write this crap Ivo? If you're doing it for free please know there are actually groups out there that will pay you to shill for them. Try the Free Market Institute. They love all the things you love: a ruined environment, slave labour, fuedal level inequality and Ayn Rand.
Ag shame - you poor thing. Here's this Icelandic volcano spewing filth into the atmosphere and no fat capitalist organisation for you to blame. The frustration must be unbearable. On the bright side, the overreaction by EU states has guaranteed that a couple of private, risk-based, entrepreneurial airlines will go bust, thereby enhancing the lives of everyone in Europe - or not.
Of course, BP executives are no doubt happy to trade about R65 billion in value for the sheer pleasure of destroying a few beaches and birds by means of an event over which they have total control - I mean, that's what capitalist pigs do, isn't it? That petrol in your car actually comes from petrol cows, doesn't it?
Like so much of what you say, your reference to the Free Market Institute is also wrong. The Free Market FOUNDATION supports INDIVIDUAL freedom, economic and social, as did Ayn Rand. For an undoubted collectivist like you, who just KNOWS whats good for everybody, that is anathema.
Yes, I drive a car. I guess I missed the global referendum where we all decided to stop developing public transit, extend the low density urban sprawl to the horizon and promote petrol car based development to the detriment of every alternative from electric to bicycle. My job is also conditional on having my own petrol driven car. I guess I should have turned the job down, then I would be homeless and starving but at least I would then be entititled to have an individual opinion on the best modes transport in your eyes.
And stop banging on about the stupid volcano. It's an act of God, not the product of a corner cutting, cost saving, regulation dodging corporate that gambled with the ecology of the ocean or the livelihoods of millions in the tourist and fishing industries (millions of individuals).
You got any kids Trev? If so Ayn would have admired a person that abducts, tortures, rapes and kills them as individuals with the courage to follow their innermost desires. The nicest thing I can say about Ayn is that she was seriously damaged goods. People that admire Ayn I regard as pinheads.
So my reaction is shrill & hysterical - you are clearly unaware of the shenanigans of BP over the past years - do some research and you find again and again that BP has flouted safety regulations, bribed officials and sadly, behaved exactly like the big bad corporation I'm hysterical about.
"The Center for Public Integrity has found that two BP refineries in the U.S. account for 97% of "egregious willful" violations given by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration."
"BP, Halliburton, and Transocean sank a drill to a depth of 35,000 feet at the Deep Horizon site some six months ago without the required permits from the federal government.' (etc, etc)
Ito the facts on climate change and damage to our biosphere, again, you haven't done your research. Worldwide we are currently using in 12 months what it takes the planet 14 months to generate, so we are living in resource debt - and eventually the bill will have to be paid.
And living a 'green' liestyle is about a lot more than driving or not driving a car. (and mine conforms to European standards on carbon emissions - one of the highest in the world) And btw, I recycle up to 90% of my rubbish, use only energy-efficient light-bulbs, am busy converting to solar, have a wormery, a composter, grow my own vegetables, use no plastic bags, won't buy water in plastic bottles, use BPA & pthalate-free products (preferably with no sodium-laurel sulphates); choose organic foods whenever possible (with no GMO's) and buy local as much as I can.
What do you do to live and promote a sustainable life?
Ignore the narcicist. He's just one of those creeps that assert their right not to have to consider other people for any reason at all, no matter what the consequences. If he was a vagrant he would be the kind that likes to leave a turd on your doorstep.
Keep up with your lifestyle, it's your best bet to insulate yourself from the shitstorm these retards are cooking up for us. When Peak Oil hits you will be in a much better position to cope than Trev and his abortion of an economy.
Sorry Sarah, I just can't let such a brilliant Freudian slip go by without comment. So you're living the "Green Liestyle" - how stunningly appropriate. I shall make that phrase a key part of my lexicon.
You are welcome to flagellate yourself anyway you like, for whatever cause you think appropriate. Just include me out. Because you think the weather gods need human sacrifices, as misguided people have thought throughout history, does not mean you get to sacrifice me, my way of life, and my economy too. And if my way of life impacts on you in a directly measurable and significant way, then sue me, just like BP will get sued. We have a well-developed legal system in the West for just that purpose.
Why are you so angry that people are speaking out against the dirty, illegal and corrupt way that BP does business? And what on earth does sacrificing to weather gods have to do with 'your way of life'?
You clearly feel your individual autonomy stands at risk if you're 'forced' to change your way of life - I understand that feeling. What you can't seem to get is that your 'way of life' cannot last and is unsustainable (while I don't know the details of your 'way of life', I am making a general assumption based on your previous comments).
I assume you like a 'Western' style of life, ie - you're a fan of American-style consumerism & throwaway culture. Do you know that America uses nearly 60% of the world's energy, while only representing 20% of the world's populuation? If everybody on earth consumed as much as the average American, we would need 4 planets to support our population - 4! And so far, this is the only one we've got.
You are locked into the paradigm of thinking that weaning off our addiction to fossil fuels and moving towards sustainable, renewable energy sources, as well as living a greener lifestyle overall, costs money. Wrong. 1 eg - Wal-Mart (in USA) reduced the packaging on 1 of their items and in one year, saved 25million dollars.
We are running out of landfill space in SA and your municipal rates are going up & up. If you are recycling and dealing with waste management holistically, you will be throwing away a shopping-size bag of rubbish maybe every fortnight. Think how much money could be saved in public services if all those garbage-men were involved in recycling and reusing waste, rather than throwing it away.
Without a supportive, healthy and functioning bio-sphere, mankind cannot live on earth - and we are damaging that bio-sphere to the point where biological systems are very, very sick. Earth will be just fine without us, but we can't live anywhere else (right now).
BP is damaging and killing my home and I outraged that they are trying to shift the blame, lying to government, bribing fisherman, covering up the health dangers, refusing access to scientists and generally behaving like huge bullies who have finally been caught.
Why are you supporting an unethical company who is trying to dodge paying the bills for their illegal, arrogant, lying, bullying behaviour?
Contrary to your conspiracy theory, I not get paid by, nor am I a member of, any lobby group, industry association or political body. I do not own shares in any company that I write about, nor do I ever derive any benefit that I do not expressly disclose. The day Big Oil pays me, I'll throw a party and retire. You'll be the first to know.
It must be hard to bear that I advocate individual liberty and free markets out of an honest conviction that natural justice demands it, and that it is the best way to ensure future prosperity for everyone, including the poor with whom people living the "Green Liestyle" refuse to do business.
And I hate to spoil another presumptuous caricature of those who prefer the rational restraints of the price mechanism over emotion-driven populism, political coercion and petty fascism, but I am neither rich, nor do I drive an SUV.
I will concede one accusation: my views are "ideologically driven", although I should point out that this precludes their being "unfounded". I do indeed base my arguments on a consistent set of principles and convictions. I value reasoned argument based on well-established principles over emotive appeals to conspiracy theory and myth.
What is this “consistent set of principles”? Is it Objectivism or some other form of anarcho-capitalism? Has it been around long enough to have a name, or is it something you invented yourself?
I would really like to know because it sounds like the daily maverick is paying you to denounce democracy. You’re not attacking certain ill designed regulations or particular instances of public maladministration but the very concepts themselves.
Democracy Ivo. If you don’t like it, just come out and say so instead of accusing me of being a fascist.
Please tell me you're kidding - the actual facts of the world's current economic situation disprove that! Your idealism is to be lauded but the harsh truth is that 'free markets' are an illusion. There are so many biased trade agreements in place around the world, that free markets effectively don't exist. The G8 & G20 countries manipulate the entire world economy to protect their economic interests. So leaving things up to the 'free market' is definitely NOT the solution as no such thing exists.
And if 'free markets' are so fantastic at reducing poverty, WHEN is this going to happen? Why do we still have poor people if free markets are so effective at reducing poverty - we can't keep waiting for 'future prosperity - where is prosperity today? (You need to read 'The Collapse of Globalism')
It is the very LACK of effective legislation that has allowed BP to get away with not doing a full environmental review; get away with safety violations; get away with not replacing faulty equipment, etc, etc.
It was the LACK of proper oversight and effective regulations that allowed the big banks of the US to play the risks game and crash the world economy.
It is the LACK of government control and anti-profiteering regulations in the US healthcare providers industry that has ensured that profit is more important than human lives.
So while I heartily agree with you on fighting for individual liberty & autonomy, I disagree that a 'free market' is the best way to support that. It is my personal autonomy and liberty that is being taken away by the immoral machinations of profit-driven corporations (that operate in your 'free market, doing that the frell they like) that are destroying (without my having recourse to make them accountable) the planet I live on and my ability to choose to live a life free of pollution, GMO's, chemicals, etc.
I am in favour of limited government, democratically elected for the purpose of protecting the life, liberty and property of citizens. I favour laws and regulations whose purpose is to achieve these goals. I am opposed to any laws and regulations that cannot be justified as strictly necessary to achieve this basic duty. This makes me a free marketeer. In particular, I favour the Austrian School of free market economics, as set out by Ludwig von Mises and others. I seldom if ever feel the need to quote, or depend on, Ayn Rand, and dislike the cultish dogmatism of her followers.
@Sarah Roberts: Answering in full would require a column (or a book). Consider it noted for the future.
In short, however, your claim that free market economics does not work because markets are not sufficiently free is a contradiction that supports my own view. You're quite right that there are trade agreements in place that make a mockery of free trade and individual rights, and that a few dominant countries (read: governments) manipulate this. Economic freedom is a matter of degree, and in much of the world -- especially international trade relations -- it is dismal.
As for reducing poverty, the history of poverty reduction is congruent with the history of free markets. People have become richer to the degree their markets have been free. This holds not only for rich countries, but also for poor countries. There is a strong correlation between how free economies are and any number of real measures of prosperity and how they change over time. Pick you favourite: life expectancy, calorie intake, real income, child mortality, poverty rates, mortality from preventible diseases, availability of charity, environmental quality, leisure time, you name it. All on the increase, except where constrained by corrupt, socialist or warlike government. In those countries -- even rich countries that thought they could afford welfare states -- citizens experience the converse: a slowing down (or reversal) of prosperity growth.
As for BP, it isn't "getting away with" anything. It is paying dearly for its mistakes and transgressions, and will pay much more in future. Much of its punishment will come -- if the US government permits this -- at the hands of individuals who feel their property rights have been infringed. You certainly do have recourse.
You claim that I'm idealistic, and admittedly I am. However, I'm a lot less idealistic than someone who not only chooses for themselves a luxury lifestyle free of chemicals or GMOs, but expects the rest of humanity to feed itself under those same extreme conditions. That is not only unattainable, it is not very desirable, given the massive impact it would have on our demand for arable land and the dramatic costs this would impose, not only on the environment, but on the people themselves. Poverty alleviation? Right.
GMO's were initially created by Monsanto (a chemical company) to sell more of their pesticides since the first GMO's only worked with their chemical products. As for GMO's 'feeding the world' - this is a total marketing spin since the opposite is true. Subsistence farmers in India, for eg, (a good example of the world population that needs feeding) are losing their farms since they can't afford to keep buying the GMO seed. (since the company owns the seed, farmers are not allowed to keep seed for the next season and have to buy every year). The Monsanto maize crops planted in SA this year were a total failure - the company said it wasn't their fault and the farmers must have done something wrong. (and btw - you can grow enough food on 3 door-frames' size of ground and a kitchen counter to feed a family of 4).
One of the most conservative mainstream newsmags (TIME) had a 6-page article a few months ago about the dangers of plastic and chemicals - and the existing appalling, poor and contradictory legislation that not only fails to protect consumers but requires no independent health and safety tests on those chemicals.
In the last 50 years, over 20,000 new chemicals have been introduced into our lives, with little or no oversight, health checks or public interest legislation - and almost no public information campaigns or information dissemination. 30% of American children have asthma which is being linked to environmental causes, ADHD has been directly linked to pesticide exposure, chemicals used in plastic that mimic human hormones in the body are now being linked with causing cancer. As an individual, I want to be able to choose NOT be exposed to poisons!
As for poverty alleviation, far more jobs (and a much better quality of life) will be created by developing a true 'green' economy, instead of perpetuating our dirty addiction to fossil fuels. What we lack is the political and business will to make the change.
I am a fierce advocate of personal liberty & autonomy - the reason I have a deep anger against the way that humanity's life, quality of life and long-term ability to survive on this planet is being threatened by corporations who don't answer to me - or it seems, anyone else! Petrol is a grudge purchase for me - and part of that grudge is knowing the bullying and illegal ways in which Big Oil has spent 60 years squashing research and investment in renewable and sustainable energy sources while funding foundations and lobbyists to get favourable, biased legislation passed and to decry climate change.
1. Your opinion is not more valid than mine, and vice versa.
2. Your rights are not more important than mine.
3. Your "current emergency" is not more urgent than mine.
4. You cannot impose your choices on me, despite your opinions, your rights, or the current emergency, and vice versa.
5. Life isn't fair - its just what happens. Fair is where hogs compete for ribbons.
If we can agree on the above, then we can agree to differ and live happily together. We don't need more rules and regulations, more government interference, more "experts". These are just ways of forcing your opinion upon me. We just need to respect each other's different views of the world.
I have no more right to spill oil in your garden than you have a right to decide how I grow my food. If I do spill some oil, because life isn't fair, I must make good the damage if it was my responsibility, even if it wasn't my fault.
If you insist that your opinions and rights trump mine, then we shall have to fight, as so many have done for so long when one group chooses to impose its opinions on another.
(BTW, my door garden is 50m from where I sit. It wouldn't feed a family of one. And its darned hard work.)
There's a guy in Cape Town who has a system called kitchen gardens where you grow sprouts in big jam-jars on a counter-top. This system provides a completely nutrious meal every 2 to 3 for a family of 4. 3 door-sized patches of properly maintained permaculture / organic garden will supply enough vegetables every day for a family of 4. Granted, you gotta like eating veggies and you won't get the variety of food you like, but this is possible.
As for food gardening being hard work - with over 40% unemployment in SA, it's not like people don't have the time...
I don't believe that your opinions and rights trump mine - what I object to is having those same rights being trumped by businesses who get away with murder, destruction and the blatant misuse of those things (supplied by nature for free) that we ALL depend on for our very survival.
I'll say this for the Austrian School (and even to an extent Objectivism) on paper it looks like Swiss clockwork, a perfect system for a perfect world inhabited exclusively by rational Homo Economicus. Plans and systems should not be judged by how elegant they look on paper but how well they have performed.
To that end: "life expectancy, calorie intake, real income, child mortality, poverty rates, mortality from preventible diseases, availability of charity, environmental quality, leisure time".
All of these have grown worse, some by huge amounts, for the vast majority of South Africans since the end of Apartheid, the end of the war, massive political unrest, compreshensive sanctions, exchange controls, restrictions on FDI and repatrition of profits and of course all the individual freedoms of movement, speech etc. that we now enjoy,(of course leisure time has increased dramatically though it's not cause for celebration.)
Have you tried to reconcile the apparent contradiction in fact that we have become more free to do business in the past twenty years than ever before but seem to be sinking deeper into decline with every passing day?
The End of Work - by Jeremy Rifkin. Does a neat unpacking of the causes of global unemployment and why free markets won't solve the problem. I recommend it to everyone I can.
"To that end: 'life expectancy, calorie intake, real income, child mortality, poverty rates, mortality from preventible diseases, availability of charity, environmental quality, leisure time'.
All of these have grown worse, some by huge amounts, for the vast majority of South Africans since the end of Apartheid, the end of the war, massive political unrest, compreshensive sanctions, exchange controls, restrictions on FDI and repatrition of profits and of course all the individual freedoms of movement, speech etc. that we now enjoy,(of course leisure time has increased dramatically though it's not cause for celebration.)
Have you tried to reconcile the apparent contradiction in fact that we have become more free to do business in the past twenty years than ever before but seem to be sinking deeper into decline with every passing day?"
Please tell me you are not serious ! When you see that there are 20 million people in RSA in 1980 of which 5 million are dying of hunger, you can come back 30 years later and see;
a) 6 million dying of hunger, make a big fuss and write a book about how things got worse... or...
b) you could consider the fact that there are now almost 50 million people in RSA and so an increase in absolute numbers can still be a decrease in percentage.
Please download the latest HDI (Human Development Index) from the UN Development Programme website for some insights in this regards. They mostly have histories going back to the 1960s, sometimes earlier.
Sure, there are more hungry people now than in 1776... but that is only in absolute numbers. Absolutely everything has gotten better everywhere for almost everyone in real terms. There have been a few short-term exceptions (Zim was worse in 2009 than it was in 2006), but that is the exception to the rule and unheard of in the long term.
Please think about it a bit and then explain how exactly the markets could cause such a failure... keeping in mind that "the market" consists of a bunch of people entirely unaware of each others motives for the largest part and can not possible sit together to plan a collapse of this magnitude... not even an Enron or BP can manage that, given market forces.
And how is it exactly that this crisis started out as a "sub-prime credit crisis", when the commercial banks lend from the central bank at prime... surely that would mean a loss to the commercial banks on the short term ?
The only way the market could have sustained sub-prime lending would have been with some external input of funds... in this case the US GOVERNMENT via GOVERNMENT institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These leached off of tax-payers for years and could not be privatised exactly due to the unsustainability of sub-prime lending in the absence of GOVERNMENT assistance.
Also, why is this case particular to "greedy bankers" ? Why not greedy second-hand car salesmen or greedy television evangelists ? And why "greed", why not "jealousy" or "nastyness" or "obesity" or "too much CFC's in the aircons" ?
Again, because the US GOVERNMENT was priming the housing market since 1938 when it created Fannie Mae and greed had nothing to do with it... unless you are referring to the greed of government officials who were regularly replaced and investigated over the years for their management of these GSE's / GOVERNMENT Sponsored Enterprises.
And why did it only collapse in 2007/2008 ?
Again, the central bank (under GOVERNMENT control and with GOVERNMENT sanctioned monopoly of the money supply) unilaterally raised the interest rates after keeping them much too low for too many years.
Once the interest rates were upped and both the implicit and explicit backing of mortgage backed dirivatives were dropped by the GOVERNMENT's central bank, the market quickly re-rated the risks quite correctly and immediately tried to remedy the situation by adjusting prices downwards. AAA risk ratings incidentally were quite correct at the time (pre-2008), given the fact that the Federal Reserve was backing these dodgy loans.
So that is how GOVERNMENT created this disaster... and continues to fuel the fires by kicking the can forwards with bail-outs. Where will the bail-out money come from ? Thin air ? No, GOVERNMENTS will take it from their people by force at some time in the future, either overtly via higher taxation or covertly via inflation.
So how is the financial crisis a market failure exactly ? No-one is saying and the mere allegations seem enough. I see much evidence that it is a GOVERNMENT failure, yet the supporting facts are blatantly ignored by all.
Obama stated last year that popular support existed for bail-outs and shortly after the NY Times posted a full-page advert signed by 200 economists including 3 Nobel laureats who disagree - look up "That is simply not true Mr. President". But the voices of the specialists are ignored and sometimes even ridiculed, because ideological rhetoric is apparently more credible in the average mind than facts are.
But hey I’m with you really. The US government is obviously interfering in the market. For interventions that affect us here in SA directly you just have to look at subsidies paid to US agriculture (and in the EU) to find a massive market distorting intervention (that in this case puts emerging African farmers at a severe disadvantage). Then they subsidise oil companies directly (at twice the rate of renewables) and of course the whole oil-car complex is underwritten by the US Interstate Freeway system (the largest public works program in history).
I don’t like what’s going on in the US. The entire top layer of management, public and private, seem to have horizontally integrated with the purpose of fleecing the US/world public, which have been roped into radical interventions and the spreading of malign influence worldwide. The “greedy bankers” are in both the public and private banking sectors. In fact, in many cases they are exactly the same people. Both Ben Bernanke and Timothy Geitner (spelling?) are former Goldman Sachs executives as is most of the top finance officials in US government. The US$14 trillion bailout was given to the banks without public debate by the bank’s former employees. That printed money is now being loaned back to the US government at interest (the banks main source of income).
I agree you shouldn’t big give loans to junkies with no hope of paying them back. But these loans were made by bankers at profit. They weren’t complaining about it and ratings agencies assured everyone these junkie’s mortgages were AAA+ rated investments (for the reason you said but also because it was assumed house prices could only go up- if the junkie defaulted they could just sell the house). Everyone from Bloomberg to CNNMoney was insistent that the system was functioning smoothly- until the day it collapsed.
I’d love to chat about it some more but unfortunately I have to honor my contract with my boss and make my deadlines. I recommend you try www.nakedcapitalism.com or www.zerohedge.com if you want to find out about massive fraud and rampant greed in the global financial sector (and partners in crime at government). Stick your head into that bee's nest for a while and tell me things are as black and white as you said. I'll check back in a few days as a matter of course.
So my position is that there are greedy bankers and they get up to all sorts of things that are dispicable - that is not in dispute - but so do some nurses, teachers and catholic preachers. That does not make the rest of those in the same profession automatically bad and is not the root cause of the recent / current crisis.
A deeper point though, is that exploitation is only possible under force i.e. if you can leave the factory at any time you wish, then you can not be exploited. As long as the agreement is voluntary, neither party can be considered to be done in because they choose to have it that way.
Similarly, competitive market forces keep customer satisfaction, efficiency and realistic estimates of risk at the top of business priorities. Not only do governments not have these competitive pressures and customer-satisfaction incentives, they are also the ONE and ONLY means to bring about a deminution of these market forces in the market.
It is only with sponsorship, protection, licencing, regulation and restrictions that market forces are diverted away and only government can make that happen. As you mention, it is trade restrictions inflicted by governments that distort trade and prices... same with risk ratings as I mentioned above.
If you look at what these bankers got up to you will find the usual "pedophile priest" amongst them as you do anywhere else... but where the problem is systemic, I can guarantee you that there is some government intervention behind it and at the root of it - not free markets.
And please don't get me wrong on that point either - the guys in government are neither worse nor better than the rest of us. They truely do have good intentions. It just happens that their good intentions invariably turn out to have really bad unintended consequences entirely due to their access to the use of force - something the market lacks by its very nature.
Governments don't mean to cause all this financial chaos. F D Rooseveld intended to put more people into houses in 1938 and by the 1990's his misguided policy had in fact succeeded in increasing home ownership in the USA from 61% to 69%. Just a pity this distorted the market to the tune of 2 Trillion dollars and caused a serious meltdown to match.
The next big meltdown is going to be around Social Security which owes the US public somewhere around 6 or 7 Trillion if I recall correctly. That's a Million bucks every day since the birth of Christ up to... about 70 years from now by some quick mental arithmetic.
Sadly, we can see it coming, but how do you tell the US public now that they need to forfeit pensions "built up" or paid for over decades in order to avoid a collapse 3 times the size of this recent one ? Be sure that the next one will also be pinned on the market, with government toted to be the saviour.
The market is not perfect, but no serious collapse or prolonged economic suffering was ever caused by the market, including 1929 and the great depression. From an economic point of view, there is only one threat to the continued existence of humanity on this planet to be scared of and it is not global warming, but a good intentioned government.
How did an 8% increase in home ownership (only a propotion of which represents people who would otherwise not have purchased a home) result in a 2 trillion black hole? Were the poor people's houses made of gold?
If you have the time I would really like to see the breakdown of this claim in figures because it sounds like another bullshit banker's claim.
It surprises me that you did not point to the other 31% who were not housed. They are the people who either move around so much that they don't want to own houses and prefer to rent, or are so unreliable that not even government would go so far as to give them houses for free, or are so stinking rich that they live on yachts and in five-star hotels, etc., etc.
So that leaves us with the 8%. Three things are very important to grasp for this lot;
a) They are the bottom of the pile. All of them. The group may contain some rich folks too, but rich folks who over-extended themselves recklessly and were not, according to the market, good for the credit also contributed to the missing 2 Trillion. They were as a group more-or-less certain to be unable to repay most or all of their credit. Hence the market refusing to borrow to them in the 61% category. These constitute the toxic morgages and these are exactly the people helped by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other GSE's. It is a very solidly unreliable 8% which not even a profit incentive would have coaxed the market into touching with a barge-pole.
b) Hardly anybody who bought a house in 1938 is still alive and in either the 61% or the 8% or any other category. The categories may still exist as statistical categories, but more than one generation has moved in and out of the category over time. So you could find unemployment to be 24% currently, but if 90% of the unemployed are in their 20's, then you can't say that nothing changed from the 24% unemployment rate we had 20 years ago. Clearly 90% of the people currently in the statistical category have been replaced by others in the past 20 years - it's not the same people in that 24%. So 8% might seem little, but it is one in every 10 houses for 70 years (1 in 7 if you exclude renting)... often the same house several times over in that 70 years. Its a repetitive and cumulative 8%.
c) The actual houses had little or nothing to do with it. People were borrowing money. The fact that they bought houses with the borrowed money is incidental as the problem is with the credit worthiness and repayment rates, not with the assets they bought. The houses are still standing, albeit empty. The point is that the 8% could not repay their debt most of the time and so the taxpayers (also known as government) had to fork over the money in tax payments. The same physical house could then be mortgaged again, the loan defaulted on again and the taxpayer having to fork out the guarantee again. This kept the 8% in houses which they would otherwise have had to go without or rent or buy smaller units of or buy in less pleasant neighbourhoods... it did not improve the actual houses. Although a total of about 8% more were built than should have been built (about 4% in actual numbers and about 4% in floor-size terms of existing numbers)... but that over-supply was only a small part of the issue and only right at the end.
Btw price-adjustments in a market sort out over-supply very quickly even in the housing market.
So to conclude, when you multiply the annual repayment rate of all mortgages by 8%, you may or may not come to $ 2 Trillion... although housing could be 5% of GDP and the US GDP was $ 6 Trillion last time I checked, so $6T x 5% x 8% x 70 years... turns out to be around $ 1.7 Trillion, which is rather close... although I don't have the time now to correct for inflation and growth, which would push it up somewhat...
That was not quite my original point though. What I was trying to say is that people have such an esoteric and super-natural belief in government as the saviour, to all problems and the immaculate cause of none of our grief that anything it does or says becomes the gospel truth, even in the absence of any evidence... so simply saying "look, the greedy bankers did it" will suffice and does not raise any questions.
The reverse is just as sadly true - when someone points out that the almighty government caused this mess and says something in defence of the market, he is pelted with stones despite having all the evidence and making the most logical arguments in the world.
If I can get just a few people to question the allegations, that is enough for me, whether they eventually end up with the right answer or not... questioning what people tell you is a step in the right direction.
So when they say "it was the greedy bankers", ask HOW EXACTLY ? Why not greedy gym instructors or greedy lemonade sellers or greedy plumbers ? Why greed ? Why not laziness, jealousy, misguided passion or the devil ? Why must the market always be defended when it is very rarely to blame for any suffering, while government is almost never to blame even in the face of regular glaring absurdities ?
You (or I) might not get to the right answer by constant questioning of what we hear, but the answer you do get will surely be better and closer to the truth than the ideological socialist hogwash being shoved out there.
So why did the banks need an additional 10 trillion or so in loans and guarantees?
Factor in the US$ 700 Trillion total NOMINAL value of the global derivitives market (global GDP +/- 50 Trillion). A price-to-earnings ratio of 1:22 ( a crazy number!) on these stocks and you have a speculator's frenzy running wild in a casino/pyramid scheme controlled by High Frequency Trading software. Bankers don't moan about this. Bankers never say the system is out of control and having negative effects on normal people.
Government regulators needs to be able to hold a credible gun to these guys head, the people need to be able to hold a credible gun to the government's head. Then all will be fine.
A part of the meltdown that I started touching on above was the fact that the actual houses did not go anywhere. Prices dropped, but they did not go to zero i.e. houses were not being given away for free. Not all loans were being defaulted on and not everyone was being kicked out of a house. Where there were defaults, it was not on the entire loan value, only that part which still lay in the immediate future, given current interest rates and the state of the price level for the rest of the market (which was not zero).
So that is a very untidy way of saying that these banks you are talking about were not wiped out instantaneously or completely. In fact, house prices only dropped 5%-10%, interest rates only increased 0.75% and the initial impact seemed to be only around 7% overall... but then came accounting rules...
I don't have time to go into details here, but the summary of the issue is that the underlying assets were for the most part okay. The banks were operating within a pretty decent margin of safety, considering the actual values of the assets. However, accounting rules (and recent changes to the rules) meant that asset values had to be shown based on their returns and not their capital values.
Note that I am talking only about commercial banks, not the GSE's, which was a different story altogether.
This meant, if I bought a house for R800k and paid off R600k, the house would still be worth R800k and the loan remainder R200k. Now if the price of the house drops to R700k, surely I still owe the bank R200k ? It is the home owner that takes that knock, not the bank.
But if I skipped a payment, that made the loan worth nothing according to the new accounting rules, because the expected future return was now zilch... despite the fact that it could be recovered in full by the underlying asset which was still worth R700k. Even if the house prices dropped further to R600k, it would still be possible to recover the remaining R200k debt from that, but this was not allowed to be shown that way in the books.
So banks which were in fact solvent when looking at the underlying assets were deemed to be insolvent based on future-returns accounting rules. Most, if not all of the banks that went bust, did not need to close. Only the ones operating very inefficiently and really close to the margins of the market already, would face that prospect in a 5%-10% dip.
A good example comes from GM and Ford... there you have GM which needs to be bailed out, while Ford is reporting profits and issuing shares. Clearly GM was operating much closer to the margins than it should have. Why else would Ford, a player in that same economy and that same market, not face the same troubles financially ?
It was probably not so much the financial crisis that caused the downfall of GM, but their marginal operation leading up to the crisis. One can only wonder if GM would not have gone belly-up anyway (maybe just somewhat postponed), even if the boom continued.