Eskom has forecasted that this winter will be lighter in terms of energy interruptions than during winter 2023, with the power utility anticipating that it can stave off higher stages of load shedding.

Eskom’s top brass proffered the power utility’s winter forecast in a press conference on Friday, 26 April. New Eskom CEO Dan Marokane and the company’s head of generation Bheki Nxumalo gave the presentation on the outlook for the winter season. 

For winter 2024, Marokane said the likely scenario indicates that load shedding will be limited to Stage 2. This is premised on a scenario of between 14,000MW–15,500MW of unplanned outages (breakdowns).

If this scenario plays out, Eskom could throw South Africa into darkness for 50 days in winter. (In winter 2023, South Africa had about 153 days of load shedding, and blackouts fluttered between Stage 3, 4 and 6, according to the power utility.)

If unplanned breakdowns surpass 15,500MW, then Eskom’s “worst-case” scenario could become a reality, and there could be as many as 103 days of power outages, with the highest load shedding stage being Stage 5. 

“We really think that on the basis of what we see; the performance of the fleet — load shedding will stay within Stage 2 from a planning perspective,” said Marokane.

Eskom CEO Dan Marokane. (Photo: Gallo Images/Financial Mail/Trevor Samson).

Lights on in month before Elections ‘24

A month before the general election, the lights are on. South Africa has had 30 consecutive days without rolling blackouts, the longest streak in more than a year. 

In 2023 — the darkest year on record — the country experienced rolling blackouts on 335 of 365 days. The blackouts contributed to another year of lacklustre economic growth in the country.

Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has called the streak before a general election a “coincidence”, saying it’s because of the progress Eskom is making in solving the country’s power crisis. 

However, the reason for the lull in load shedding this year compared to the same period last year, is because demand for Eskom grid electricity continues to decline, energy analyst Chris Yelland penned in an Op-ed. This, Yelland says, is because of South Africa’s weak economy and the resulting generally flat overall demand for power, the increasing cost of Eskom electricity, load shedding and the low reliability of Eskom grid electricity, and the move to alternative energy sources by Eskom customers.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Why is there less load shedding? There’s a fundamental change taking place in SA’s electricity sector

Marokane said “what is yielding this performance of no load shedding, is actually the capacity coming from the improvement in generation performance” but acknowledged that “the demand is also declining slightly”.

Frequency declined 

“The frequency and intensity of load shedding in the past year has also declined,” said Marokane, adding that Eskom was not out of the woods yet. But it is a trend that is encouraging. 

Winter is traditionally a nail-biting season for Eskom’s grid, which sees a rise in demand. Last year was particularly dim as the power utility headed into winter on the back foot, with about 3,000MW of generation capacity less than it had the previous year. 

The opposition has expressed scepticism about the 30-day lull in power cuts, questioning its timing ahead of the elections. The DA, in a statement this week, said: “The continued use of OCGTs (Open Cycle Gas Turbines) to augment power supply has raised credible concerns Eskom may be creating an illusion of improved electricity supply — with load shedding having been suspended for the past 23 days by Eskom burning copious quantities of diesel.”

However, Nxumalo said Eskom is currently “quite prudent” in burning diesel. DM