In a speech on Friday, Sunak is due to pledge a “new welfare settlement for Britain”, with reforms to the way people are signed off work due to ill-health, according to remarks briefed in advance by his office.

“We don’t just need to change the sick note, we need to change the sick-note culture so the default becomes what work you can do – not what you can’t,” Sunak is due to say. “We need to be more ambitious about helping people back to work.”

Britain is currently the only Group of Seven industrialized nation where the employment rate has failed to recover to pre-pandemic levels, a consequence of a surge in long-term sickness. The lack of available workers has become one of the country’s most pressing economic issues — contributing to reduced productivity, greater wage growth as employers try to attract workers, and inflationary pressures as a result.

Sunak plans to consult with health-care professionals on potential changes such as shifting responsibility for issuing so-called fit notes away from GPs and doing more to encourage those with mental health conditions back into work. 

Bloomberg reported last year that Sunak was looking at changes to the system of “fit notes” issued by doctors, amid concerns that high levels of labor inactivity were adding billions of pounds to the annual welfare bill.

That said, it’s unclear how much change the government will be able to see through given the upcoming general election, which has to be held by January 2025 at the latest, and the ruling Conservative Party’s double-digit polling deficit versus the main opposition Labour Party.