As Ukraine’s ammunition stocks dwindle, some of the country’s biggest allies are expressing concern that Kyiv may not be able to defend itself for much longer against Russia’s invasion.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said European Union leaders were planning to send seven additional Patriot air-defence systems to Ukraine as Russia escalates missile and drone strikes on the nation’s energy infrastructure and urban centres. 

Long-stalled aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan is on track to pass Congress as House Democrats lined up to back Speaker Mike Johnson’s plan and provide the votes to overcome a planned blockade attempt by GOP conservatives.

Polish man arrested for allegedly helping with plot to kill Zelensky

Poland has arrested a man on suspicion of assisting with a Russian plot to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the prosecutor’s office said on Thursday.

The Polish citizen identified as Pawel K was charged with declaring his readiness to help Russian military intelligence collect information about the security of Rzeszow-Jasionka airport, the main stopover point for officials travelling to and from Ukraine, according to the statement.

The suspect faces eight years in prison if convicted under espionage laws.

The investigation has been carried out in close coordination between Polish and Ukrainian authorities. The key evidence in the case was obtained from the Ukrainian side, according to the statement.

German authorities said on Thursday they had arrested two men suspected of spying for Russia and membership of a terror group planning acts of sabotage, a case the interior minister called “particularly serious.”

Zelensky has frequently used Rzeszow-Jasionka airport on international trips as he seeks to rally support for his country more than two years into Russia’s full-scale invasion. Located 100km from a Ukraine border crossing at Medyka, the airport has also served as the main hub for Western military aid going to Ukraine.

The Ukrainian president said in an interview with The Sun newspaper in November last year that his intelligence services had foiled at least five or six plots to kill him.

Ukraine’s allies see bleak times without more air defences

As Ukraine’s ammunition stocks dwindle, some of the country’s biggest allies are expressing concern that Kyiv may not be able to defend itself for much longer against Russia’s invasion. 

Group of Seven foreign ministers gathering on the Italian island of Capri will call for stronger support, with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock saying Ukraine needs more air defence urgently.

“The ferry ride here was stormy and was perhaps also a sign of how stormy our times are,” she told reporters on Thursday before meeting with her G7 counterparts. 

Ukraine is struggling to fend off military pressure from Russia in the face of a lack of ammunition and with a $61-billion US aid package stuck in Congress. Zelensky has been calling for more air defence systems to be sent to Ukraine as Kremlin troops exploit the country’s weakness by stepping up missile attacks on power stations, electricity grids and residential areas across the country.

“Western countries, Japan, Canada, the US, Europe, have to take quicker decisions in order to support Ukraine more because we cannot afford Putin’s victory,” the European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said at the G7. “Concrete decisions have to be taken in order to send Ukraine more air defence.” 

EU to send Ukraine more Patriot missile systems

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said European Union leaders were planning to send seven additional Patriot air-defence systems to Ukraine as Russia escalates missile and drone strikes on the nation’s energy infrastructure and urban centres. 

Speaking to reporters after an informal meeting of EU leaders in Brussels, Scholz said Germany would send a third Patriot system to Ukraine and that another six would follow soon from other member states, which he didn’t identify. 

“I hope that everyone will complete their opinion-forming process as quickly as possible because time is also of the essence,” Scholz said. 

In addition to the third Patriot system, Germany will deliver more Iris-T and Skynex air defence systems to Kyiv with the accompanying ammunition.

Germany has become the biggest supporter of Ukraine’s war effort in Europe and Scholz has repeatedly urged fellow EU leaders to step up their support, particularly amid delays in aid and weapons deliveries from the US.  

Ukraine, Israel aid on track to pass as Democrats back plan

Long-stalled aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan is on track to pass Congress as House Democrats lined up to back Speaker Mike Johnson’s plan and provide the votes to overcome a planned blockade attempt by GOP conservatives.

The House is expected to hold a series of votes on Saturday on the aid package with the Senate taking it up as soon as next week. The plan largely mirrors the $95-billion foreign aid package the Senate passed in February, with about $10-billion in economic assistance to Ukraine converted into a loan.

“We’re going to do what’s necessary to make sure the national security Bill gets over the finish line,” House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York said. “It’s not Johnson’s foreign aid package. It’s America’s foreign aid package in terms of meeting our national security needs.”

Johnson will need votes from Democrats to pass the plan after ultra-conservatives in the House Freedom Caucus said they would vote against a procedural measure to start debate on it. Minority Democrats had to do the same thing in May to pass a measure to raise the debt ceiling and prevent a US payment default.

The $95-billion aid package contains national security and sanctions provisions with bipartisan support. It also allows the confiscation of Russian dollar assets, something critics allege would weaken the status of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. 

China-based Bytedance Ltd would be required to divest the popular social media app TikTok or face a ban on the app. But the legislation sets a deadline for doing so well past the November US elections. The package also mandates sanctions on Iranian oil but does not expedite natural gas exports due to objections by Democrats.

Democrats may also have to help Johnson keep his job, which has come under increasing threat due to his decision to allow a vote on Ukraine aid without tying the package to US border security provisions.

Johnson told reporters late on Wednesday he had not asked Democrats to help him and he was willing to risk his job to help Ukraine stop Russia’s invasion.

“My philosophy is you do the right thing and you let the chips fall where they may,” he said. “I’m a Reagan Republican. I believe in peace through strength.”

Ukraine says it attacked Russian military air base in Crimea

Ukraine said it attacked a large air base in Russian-occupied Crimea, highlighting its ability to strike the Kremlin’s military installations far beyond the front lines despite growing ammunition shortages. 

The strike, which took place early on Wednesday, targeted an airfield in Dzhankoi in northern Crimea, close to the narrow strip of land that connects the annexed peninsula with Ukraine-controlled territory. The attack damaged four S-400 air defence missile launchers, three radars and other equipment, Ukraine’s military intelligence said on Thursday, without elaborating on the number of jets and personnel hit.

Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for the Ukrainian military intelligence called it a “successful operation” in comments to Radio Liberty. Dzhankoi is a key hub for Russia in Crimea to supply its troops in occupied southern and eastern parts of Ukraine and to launch aerial attacks against the country. 

Russian officials and the military haven’t commented on the strike. The pro-Moscow military blogger Rybar, who has almost 1.2 million subscribers on Telegram, said the attack involved 12 missiles launched in two barrages, damaging jets parked on the airfield as well as some buildings. Zelensky praised the precision of the strike in his evening video statement on Wednesday without elaborating.

Russia to hire contract soldiers in bid to avoid unpopular draft

Russia is preparing to enlist more contract soldiers as it presses its invasion of Ukraine, aiming to avoid at least for now another mass call-up that could undermine popular support for the war.

The Kremlin is anxious not to repeat the September 2022 mobilisation, which shook public confidence and triggered an exodus of as many as a million Russians from the country, three people informed about discussions on the matter said.

With as many as 30,000 new recruits a month, Russia could reinforce army ranks by 300,000 this year, said Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow-based Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies think tank. 

Bolstered by its advantage in ammunition, the Russian army is continuing to advance as Ukraine’s forces struggle because of delays in US and European military aid and personnel shortages. To be sure, relying on a gradual influx of new troops to replace losses and build up numerical strength rather than simply calling up another 300,000 in one go limits Russia’s military options. 

Gaining control of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, or capturing Zaporizhzhia in the southeast would likely require a major new fighting force. An assault on the strategic southern port city of Odesa would be an even tougher goal. 

Germany arrests two alleged Russian spies planning sabotage

German authorities arrested two men suspected of spying for Russia and membership of a terror group planning acts of sabotage, in a case the interior minister called “particularly serious”.

The Federal Prosecutor General in Karlsruhe named the pair of German-Russian citizens as Dieter S and Alexander J and said the alleged members of a pro-Kremlin group known as the “Donetsk People’s Republic” were taken into custody on Wednesday in the Bavarian city of Bayreuth.

Dieter S had been in contact with an individual connected to a Russian intelligence service since October last year about “possible sabotage actions” against military and industrial sites in Germany, including US installations, the prosecutor-general said on Thursday in an emailed statement.

“Against this background, the accused declared to his interlocutor that he was prepared to carry out explosive and arson attacks,” the statement said, adding that the intention was “in particular to undermine the military support provided from Germany to Ukraine.” 

The arrests are the latest evidence of apparent Russian spying in Germany, a phenomenon that strained relations between Berlin and Moscow even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has summoned the Russian ambassador in Berlin to her ministry to discuss the case, according to a spokesperson. 

Russia builds new Asia trade routes to weaken sanctions  

Russia is pressing ahead with the construction of two new transport corridors linking Asia and Europe, seeking to weaken sanctions over its war in Ukraine at the same time as Middle East turmoil is disrupting global trade.

The shipping and rail networks via Iran and an Arctic sea passage could strengthen Moscow’s pivot toward Asian powerhouses China and India and away from Europe. They have the potential to embed Russia at the heart of much of international trade even as the US and its allies are trying to isolate President Vladimir Putin over the war.

The routes could cut 30%-50% off transit times compared to the Suez Canal and avoid security problems plaguing the Red Sea as Houthi rebels attack international shipping over Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. Iran’s missile and drone strikes aimed at Israel have added to the regional turbulence.

While the US and its Western allies are shunning the Russia-backed routes despite potential cost savings, major Asian and Gulf economies have shown interest.

Still, significant hurdles remain.

Outdated Iranian infrastructure is holding up development of the International North South Transportation Corridor connecting India to the European part of Russia. And even as accelerating climate change melts Arctic ice to make the Northern Sea Route, or NSR, a more viable option, formidable logistical challenges remain along Russia’s remote coastline.

Russia is preparing to invest more than $25-billion to upgrade the route via Iran and improve facilities along the Russian Arctic shoreline, including a fleet of domestically manufactured ice-breakers. It also plans to patrol the NSR route with a network of drone bases, Izvestia newspaper reported, citing an unidentified Defence Ministry official.

Russia issued a €1.3-billion loan to Iran last May to build a vital missing rail link that will stretch 162km to connect the city of Rasht along the Caspian Sea coast to Astara on the border with Azerbaijan. Once completed, the railway will allow cargo supplies from St Petersburg to Bandar Abbas, Iran’s main export port on the Persian Gulf.

“Its construction will allow us to create direct and uninterrupted railway transportation along the entire length of the North-South route,” Putin said during a videoconference with Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi. “This will help considerably diversify global transport flows. DM