How likely is it that President Cyril Ramaphosa will step down?

There is a lot of feverish speculation whizzing around at the moment. All of it should be taken with healthy pinches of salt, because the sources of political rumours are almost never neutral, and there are plenty of political rivals for whom Ramaphosa’s resignation would constitute wish fulfilment.

At the same time, Ramaphosa has staked his entire presidency on clean governance and anti-corruption reform. The fact that an independent panel headed by former chief justice Sandile Ngcobo has found that the president may have violated the Constitution and anti-corruption laws leaves the President, as Daily Maverick’s Marianne Merten observed on Thursday morning, with “few good options”.

To subject himself to an impeachment process similar to the one currently being undergone by Public Protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane would be an extreme humiliation. 

The thinking could be: Better to voluntarily step down now, proclaiming his innocence but restating his commitment to clean governance, rather than see his reputation tarnished in this way.  

Is it possible that Ramaphosa could temporarily step aside until the matter is more conclusively resolved?

No. There is no provision made for this in South African law or the Constitution. It’s all or nothing.

Let’s say he tells the nation he’s resigning. What then?

It’s an intriguing situation, because South Africa has never had a president step down voluntarily without being recalled by the ANC first – as happened to Thabo Mbeki in 2008 and Jacob Zuma in 2018.

There is also no constitutional guidance on this point, so we have to rely on the two precedents from presidents (ahem) mentioned above.

Crucial to remember is the fact that Ramaphosa, like his predecessors, wears two hats at the same time: ANC president and South African president.

The Zuma resignation situation was somewhat different and simpler, because when JZ resigned as the country’s president in February 2018, Ramaphosa had already been ANC president for over two months, after winning the party’s elections at Nasrec at the end of 2017.

As such, it was already evident that he would replace Zuma as South Africa’s president, due to the desire to avoid having two centres of power.

In the case of Mbeki’s recall in 2008, minister without portfolio, Kgalema Motlanthe, became caretaker president. In this case, it is to be assumed that if Ramaphosa steps down, his deputy – David “DD” Mabuza – would ascend to the presidency of South Africa.

Visit Daily Maverick’s home page for more news, analysis and investigations

Would Mabuza become president automatically?

No. Once Ramaphosa has resigned, Parliament would have to reconvene. Then the ANC caucus would have to nominate Mabuza as State President in the National Assembly, and he would have to be voted in. Given the ANC majority in Parliament, that part should be smooth. Then Mabuza would have to be sworn in by Chief Justice Raymond Zondo.

That’s the president of South Africa. What about president of the ANC?

This is where things will get tricky. There are two weeks to go till the ANC is due to elect a president at its elective conference at Nasrec: the polls that Ramaphosa would have likely smashed prior to the release of the Phala Phala report.

In the fortnight until the Nasrec conference, it is hilariously possible that Paul Mashatile could become acting president at Luthuli House (i.e. of the ANC), which would mean that Mashatile would be simultaneously holding the roles of acting president, acting treasurer-general and acting secretary-general of the ANC. (Ramaphosa’s resignation would cut the numbers of the ANC’s Top 6 down to just three, with only Mashatile, Mabuza and Gwede Mantashe remaining.)

It is almost impossible to predict what would happen at the ANC elective conference in a situation where Ramaphosa does not contest, because anything could happen when nominations are thrown open to the floor.

According to the slates, however, Mashatile is the Ramaphosa camp’s second-most preferred candidate. So it’s possible that Paul Mashatile could emerge as president of the ANC.

So then would Mashatile become president of South Africa?

Daily Maverick’s walking political encylopedia, Marianne Merten, makes the important point that Mashatile cannot be elected as State President through Parliament without first being a member of the National Assembly, and he currently ain’t.

So, Mashatile would need to get sworn in as an MP first, which can’t just happen at any old time: as things stand, the parliamentary lists can only be amended at certain times of year.

As such, it’s possible that Mashatile would need to wait till around April 2023 to be first sworn in as an MP, and then nominated as president by the National Assembly. Until then, South Africa would have to make do with separate ANC and state presidents.

But, crucially, this is all pie in the sky for now.     

This is a lot to take in

It really is – and just as we were all about to switch our brains off for Dezemba. Still, nothing has happened as yet. Stay calm, and look out for announcements of one of Ramaphosa’s famous Family Meetings. DM