As traders weigh the virus’s impact on Chinese businesses and consumption, the non-manufacturing reading of the nation’s purchasing managers’ index may offer early signs of its effects on the service sector. The phase-one trade deal with the U.S. this month, combined with recovering global demand, had improved the outlook for Chinese factories and exporters in 2020. Trading flows may be below average with Chinese markets shut for the Lunar New Year until Friday and holidays across Asia.

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Contagion fears aside, emerging-market investors will be watching interest-rate decisions in the U.S., Kenya, Angola, Hungary, Pakistan, Chile, Sri Lanka, Ukraine and Ghana this week.

Ukraine, Ghana Seen Easing

• The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday
  • Read: Fed Seen Holding Rates Steady, Ending Bill Purchases by June
  • U.S. growth probably maintained momentum in the fourth quarter at a 2.1% annualized pace, a report Thursday is forecast to show
• Ukraine’s central bank will probably slash its benchmark interest rate to 11.5% from 13.5%
  • Inflation has plummeted to the lowest in almost six years after the hryvnia outshone all other currencies against the dollar in 2019
• Economists predict that Ghana will likely lower its benchmark rate to 15.5% from 16% on Friday, after inflation came in below the year-end target set by the government
• The central bank in Chile will probably leave its key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, waiting for more information on unemployment, retail sales and copper production that will be released on Friday
• Policy makers in Kenya, Hungary, Pakistan and Colombia are set to keep their borrowing costs unchanged
• Angola is scheduled to decide on interest rates Monday, and Sri Lanka on Thursday

Economic Data and Events

• South Korea unveils its industrial production data for December on Friday and full-month trade figures for January on Feb. 1. Early trade figures for January showed overall exports dropped 0.2% during the first 20 days from a year earlier, the smallest decline in a year
• Thailand is due to report on Friday its current-account balance for December
• Investors will seek guidance on Turkey’s monetary policy when the central bank unveils its first inflation report of the year on Thursday
  • It’s unlikely to make major revisions to the 8.2% inflation forecast for end-2020, according to Bloomberg Economics
• Argentina’s congress is expected to discuss a debt sustainability bill on Thursday that may help the government renegotiate its debt burden with bondholders. At the provincial level, the new deadline for creditors to accept Buenos Aires’ proposal to extend debt payments falls on Friday
• Investors will watch for Brazil’s December current-account balance on Monday and inflation numbers on Thursday for clues about the pace of economic recovery in Latin America’s largest economy. The real is the worst-performing currency in the region this year
• In Mexico, preliminary fourth-quarter GDP figures to be published on Thursday will probably show the economy stagnating. Still, the peso is widely expected to remain a top carry trade among major currencies