The new proposals are aimed at clarifying the U.K.’s proposed customs rules for Northern Ireland, two officials said. Talks will continue throughout the day in Brussels as the two sides try to agree on how far Northern Ireland will be detached from the EU’s customs union — something that risks incurring the opposition of the Democratic Unionist Party, whose support will be vital for any deal to pass.

Officials may even have a draft legal text ready for diplomats to scrutinize on Wednesday, two of them said. Earlier, the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said a deal is possible this week — but talks remain tough.

All time stamps are Brussels time (CET).

Key developments:
U.K. submits new proposals to resolve impasse
A hard Brexit remains a tail risk which is simply too big to ignore
Johnson still needs to persuade his Northern Irish allies

Johnson, Macron Had ‘Constructive’ Brexit Call (12:48 p.m.)
Boris Johnson discussed Brexit with French President Emmanuel Macron in a 20 minute phone call, Johnson’s spokesman, James Slack, told reporters in London.

“It was constructive. I would say it was a good discussion,” Slack said, without giving further details of the discussion.

The U.K. is working hard to reach a deal with the bloc as time runs short before Thursday’s summit of EU leaders in Brussels, Slack said.

The Pound Pares Earlier Gains (12:25 p.m.)
After rallying on Barnier’s comments that a deal is possible this week, the pound pared some of its gains, as details emerged from the meeting of EU ministers in Luxembourg, in which remaining sticking points were highlighted. It was still up by 0.3% against the dollar as of 12:20 p.m in Brussels, amid cautious optimism that an accord is within grasp. The whipsaw between positive and skeptical headlines pushed one-week volatility to its highest since July 2016.

Cable one-week volatility surges as Brexit headlines hit the wire

France Says U.K. Made Serious Brexit Proposal (12:14 p.m.)
The French government believes that the U.K. presented a “serious proposal” to exit the EU, though it’s too early to say if there will be a deal by the European summit later this week.

The situation regarding Brexit must be clear before the EU leaders meet on Thursday in Brussels, about two weeks prior to the Oct. 31 deadline for the U.K.’s exit from the bloc, a French presidency official said during a briefing with reporters in Paris.

JPMorgan Says Pare Back No-Deal Brexit Protection (12:12 p.m.)
JPMorgan Chase & Co. credit strategists are so confident that the U.K. will avoid crashing out of the EU without a deal this month that they recommend closing Brexit hedges on no-deal exposed borrowers such as Lloyds Banking Group Plc and ITV Plc.

Coveney Says “Today is a Key Day” (12:00 p.m.)
“This isn’t the time for optimism or pessimism,” Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney told reporters in Luxembourg after the meeting with his EU counterparts and Barnier. “The negotiating teams have made progress but it’s been slow,” he added.

“This is difficult, but it is possible,” according to Coveney, who reiterated that EU leaders aren’t willing to negotiate on a legal text. Such text must be finalized by negotiating teams.

“Today is a key day,” he said. “I don’t want to raise expectations, but later on today or this evening, but if there is going to be a positive report that is needed in EU capitals tomorrow in advance of the EU Summit, well clearly, a big step forward needs to happen today.”

Barnier’s Cautious Optimism (11:35 a.m.)
Barnier was cautiously optimistic about the prospect of a Brexit deal during his meeting in Luxembourg with EU ministers, according to a national official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. A breakthrough is possible as soon as today, in which case the matter would be to EU leaders when they meet Oct. 17-18, according to the official.

While the sticking points remain the same, Barnier’s optimism reflects U.K. willingness to address EU concerns, said the official. Barnier himself, walking by reporters in a hallway in Luxembourg, told them the search for a Brexit agreement is an “ongoing process.”

Barnier Sees Chances of Significant Progress (11:05 a.m.)
Here’s a bit more from Barnier’s discussion with EU ministers in Luxembourg. “Not all that U.K. has been saying in the last days is totally unacceptable,” the chief negotiator said, according to one of the people in the meeting. “They have moved in our direction on key points and that’s why I think we still can make significant progress today,” he said, according to the official.

Rees-Mogg: Parliament Would Approve Deal (10:45 a.m.)
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the U.K. minister in charge of steering legislation through the House of Commons, said that if Johnson secures a deal with the EU, it could be ratified by Parliament very quickly. “The votes are there,” Rees-Mogg told LBC radio.

For any deal to pass, the issue of the Irish border would need to be solved in order to guarantee the support of the Democratic Unionist Party, which has 10 crucial votes in the legislature.

“I don’t know what is being discussed in Brussels,” Rees-Mogg told LBC. “Basically, I am trusting Boris Johnson because he has been a Brexiteer before the term Brexiteer existed.”

Barclay: Deal is “Very Much” Possible (10:45 a.m.)
“Talks are ongoing and we need to give them space,” U.K. Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay told reporters in Luxembourg. He added that a “deal is very much possible.”

Merkel Promises to Work to ‘Last Minute’ (10:40 a.m.)
Chancellor Angela Merkel says Brexit talks are like “squaring the circle,” but she will continue to work for a deal until the “last minute.”

“It’s very, very complicated,” Merkel said in a speech in Berlin at an industrial conference. “We’ll work on it until the last minute.”

Text Ready for Summit? (10:30 a.m.)
Barnier has told EU ministers that there is a chance the two sides could have a consolidated legal text ready by Thursday’s summit, according to two officials present at the meeting. The two sides are closing in on an agreement on the Stormont lock and customs checks in Northern Ireland.

Barnier cautioned that the talks could still go one of three ways: conclude, reach a deadlock, or need to continue after the summit. He plans to debrief the bloc’s envoys in Brussels on Wednesday about the outcome of the discussions.

U.K. Carmakers call for EU deal (10 a.m.)
After spending more than 500 million pounds ($628 million) preparing for Brexit, British carmakers made a last-ditch call to the government to reach a deal. Crashing out of the EU would threaten jobs and the industry’s long-term survival, the Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders said on Tuesday.

From Bloomberg Intelligence
FTSE’s a Poor Brexit Bet; Here’s Three Other Clearer Ideas
U.K. Submits New Proposals (9:55 a.m.)
The U.K. submitted new proposals to EU negotiators on Monday clarifying its plan for customs rules for Northern Ireland, two officials said.

Barnier had told diplomats on Sunday that the U.K.’s plans were too complex and risked opening up the European single market to fraud. Monday’s proposals were aimed at responding to that, the officials said.

France Says a Deal Is Up to the U.K. (9:30 a.m.)
France’s Europe minister, Amelie de Montchalin, said she is still hopeful of a Brexit deal — but the onus is on the U.K. to bring forward its proposals. The complexity of what was being requested for the Irish border and the short time available make things difficult, she said.

“An agreement is possible, but it has to be a balanced deal for everyone,” she said.

U.K. to Submit New Proposals (9:20 a.m.)
The U.K. will bring forward new proposals today, RTE’s Europe’s editor Tony Connelly reported, citing two unidentified people familiar with the matter. It is not clear if they are revised version of the current British plans being discussed — which involve keeping Northern Ireland in both the EU and U.K.’s customs zones — or a different plan, Connelly added.

Breaking: the UK will table fresh proposals to break the Brexit deadlock this morning, @rtenews understands

— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) October 15, 2019
Late Night Talks (9:15 a.m.)
In a sign of how intensive the Brexit negotiations have become, they didn’t break up until about 11:30 p.m. on Monday, officials with knowledge of the talks said. They have already resumed in Brussels on Tuesday morning, they said.

From Bloomberg Opinion
Singapore-on-Thames Isn’t Going to Happen: Therese Raphael
German Minister Not Sure Deal Is Close (9:10 a.m.)
“I’m not quite sure a deal is close but we’re doing our best to find a good deal,” Germany’s Europe Minister Michael Roth told reporters in Luxembourg. “A hard Brexit would be a disaster, not just for the U.K., but also for the 27.”

Roth said Germany was “extremely flexible” but that the integrity of the single market and the Good Friday Agreement, which brought peace to Northern Ireland after decades of violence, were key.

Dutch Minister Says Proposal Needs More Work (8:56 a.m.)
The foreign minister from the Netherlands told reporters that the U.K. offer indicates progress, but more work needs to be done.

“The U.K. proposal contains some steps forward but doesn’t yet guarantee that the single market will be protected,” Dutch Foreign Minister Stef Blok told reporters in Luxembourg. “There have been intensive talks and they’re still going on, but let’s use the remaining time until Oct. 31.”

Pound Gains After Barnier Comments (8:50 a.m.)
The pound jumped on Barnier’s comments, rising as much as 0.7% to $1.2698, close to the three-month high touched last week after leaders said they could see a “pathway” to a potential Brexit deal. Hedge funds and asset managers have been paring their bets on a weaker pound, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Pound surges after Barnier says that a deal this week may still be possible
Barnier Says Brexit Deal Difficult, Possible (8:35 a.m)
EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said a Brexit deal is possible this week but talks remain tough. “Even if an agreement will be difficult — more and more difficult to be frank — it will still be possible this week,” Barnier told reporters in Luxembourg.

“Reaching an agreement is still possible. Obviously, any agreement must work for everyone, the whole of the U.K. and the whole of the EU,” he said.

He added that it’s high time to “turn good intentions into a legal text.”

Earlier:
Boris Johnson’s Brexit Deal On Knife Edge as EU Needs More Time
Johnson Has a Big Brexit Problem: His Northern Irish Friends
The Brexit Threat to World Markets Remains Too Huge to Ignore

–With assistance from John Ainger, Jessica Shankleman, Nikos Chrysoloras, Patrick Donahue, Kitty Donaldson, Vassilis Karamanis and Helene Fouquet.

To contact the reporters on this story:
Jonathan Stearns in Luxembourg at [email protected];
Ian Wishart in Brussels at [email protected]

To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Ben Sills at [email protected]
Richard Bravo, Nikos Chrysoloras